The End of Low Rates?

The biggest year-end story in real estate was undoubtedly rising mortgage rates.  Rates bottomed in July and rose slowly until the election when they went ballistic with one of the steepest rises we have seen in the past 8 years. Whenever we get an outsized move like that there is a lot of anxiety. Many people are projecting much higher rates this year and an end to the historic 'Low Rate Era' of the past 10 years. While the rise in rates is unsettling it is important to keep things in perspective. The chart below shows the swing lows and highs in mortgage rates since 2009. The recent rise brings us closer to the middle of the 8-year range. With the FED projected to raise rates three times in 2017 an upward bias in mortgage rates is expected, but even so, there is further to go before rates break out of the current multi-year range. Until that happens, rates are still very low with the potential to make lower lows in a future economic slowdown.

Stop worrying, buy a house

Not to say that owning a home will melt all of your worries away, but as Gallup surveys have consistently found over the years- renters worry more about their housing expenses than homeowners do.

Link to full Gallup Survey

I am lucky to be a homeowner for a couple of decades now, but I can still remember the two nagging worries that I had as a renter.  At the top of the list was not knowing if I would be asked to vacate. Always concerned if I would have to move prevented me from truly feeling at home as a renter and kept a lot of my belongings packed away in boxes just in case I was told to move. My second worry was rent increases.  I always expected that were coming, so it was never a surprise when they did, but not knowing exactly when and by how much was stressful. Others have told me that they don't like the fact that they can't paint the color they want or use a rental how they please.  I get that too.  Once I wanted to grow some vegetables and had to build special planters because the landlord didn't want me digging in the yard.

So how does owning your home free you from worry?  Well I am not sure that homeowners don't worry, but the Gallup survey shows that they do worry less about housing costs and for good reason.  One of the best investments anyone can make is to control their housing expense. Even though in the beginning most people will end up paying more for their house each month compared to renting, housing payments stay mostly fixed compared to ever increasing rent.  And because housing payments are fixed they tend to shrink over time compared to everything else in the world including your income. If you look at people that have owned a home for any period of time you see that their housing expense as a percentage of income becomes less and less each year, leaving more of their earnings for other important priorities. Everyone is saving for retirement, right?